Biological Threats: National Trends
Public-health and operational resilience are likely to require planning beyond a single emergency scenario.
Likely · Moderate confidence
National Security Trends · Workforce & Demographics
Last reviewed
Security Threats: National Trends
SF-US-2026-111 · Last reviewed · Draft, qualitative desk review
A PDF edition has not been published for this report.
Summary
BLUF: Security competition is likely to connect defense readiness with industrial and infrastructure resilience.
What we found
Security competition is likely to connect defense readiness with industrial and infrastructure resilience.
Why this matters
This assessment connects strategic competition, cyber exposure and contested supply networks. to Defense installations, suppliers and public institutions. Decisions should be staged around observable evidence rather than a single forecast.
What to watch
- Public GAO security and readiness assessments
- Published national defense-priority changes affecting local missions
- Continuity exercise findings and verified dependency remediation milestones
01 Key judgments
Security competition is likely to connect defense readiness with industrial and infrastructure resilience.
Analyst assessment. Likelihood and confidence are stated separately, following the estimative-language approach described in ICD 203.
02 Analysis
Macro lens
Strategic competition, cyber exposure and contested supply networks.
Micro lens
Defense installations, suppliers and public institutions.
So what for Oklahoma
Stress-test installation-adjacent suppliers and public infrastructure; retain alternate sourcing and decision gates.
Drivers
- National strategic competition and exposure of defense-support infrastructure
- Supplier dependencies relevant to US readiness and Oklahoma installations
- Continuity requirements when cyber or physical disruption affects essential operations
Scenarios
- Illustrative: public readiness priorities guide targeted resilience investments in US installation-support networks.
- Illustrative: a domestic infrastructure disruption reveals a supplier bottleneck and requires Oklahoma partners to activate alternate support arrangements.
Indicators to watch
- Public GAO security and readiness assessments
- Published national defense-priority changes affecting local missions
- Continuity exercise findings and verified dependency remediation milestones
Your own SWOT worksheet
A thinking aid for applying this report to your own situation. It is separate from the analyst assessment.
Strengths
What capabilities already support this decision?
Owner: Decision sponsor — to be assigned
Weaknesses
What internal constraints could undermine execution?
Owner: Operational lead — to be assigned
Opportunities
What external changes create options worth testing?
Owner: Strategy lead — to be assigned
Threats
What external developments could change the value case?
Owner: Risk lead — to be assigned
Illustrative worksheet: your notes stay in this browser tab
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Sources
| Source | Note |
|---|---|
| GAO-22-3SP · Trends Affecting Government and Society (opens in a new tab) | 2022 trend framework; not a current statistical release. |
| NIC · Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (opens in a new tab) | Scenario-method reference, not a prediction. |
Sources provide context. Project-specific claims require additional verification before action. "Last reviewed" records this draft's editorial review, not each source's refresh date.
Sources: GAO-22-3SP · Trends Affecting Government and Society (opens in new tab); NIC · Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (opens in new tab)
Cite this report
Strategic Foresight LLC. Security Threats: National Trends. SF-US-2026-111. Last reviewed October 10, 2026. https://strategicengineering.com/reports/security-threats
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